GEW Editorial
The intricate web of diplomatic, economic, and military interactions has woven a multifaceted fabric in the relationship between Turkey and Israel. The bilateral relationship between the two nations has experienced phases of intimate collaboration. Yet, it has also been marred by occasional escalations of tensions, notably about the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Turkey\’s participation in the 2010 Gaza flotilla, which sought to challenge the Israeli blockade on the Gaza Strip, stands out as a prominent manifestation of this ongoing conflict. Amidst President Recep Tayyip Erdogan\’s persistent critique of Israeli policies, inquiries emerge regarding Turkey\’s potential involvement in the contemporary Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
The Gaza Flotilla in Historical Context
In 2010, Turkey spearheaded a flotilla of vessels to challenge the Israeli blockade imposed upon Gaza. The flotilla was jointly organised by the Free Gaza Movement and the Turkish Foundation for Human Rights and Freedoms and Humanitarian Relief (IHH). The mission concluded in a lamentable turn of events as Israeli commandos embarked upon the Mavi Marmara, a vessel among the flotilla, culminating in the unfortunate demise of nine Turkish activists. The incident in question has significantly strained the bilateral relations between Turkey and Israel, resulting in a diplomatic freeze between them.
Erdogan\’s ideological stance
Erdogan\’s political ideology finds its foundation in a variant of political Islam that exhibits sympathy towards the Palestinian cause. The Justice and Development Party (AKP), under his leadership, has frequently leveraged the Israeli-Palestinian conflict as a unifying factor for its support base. Erdogan has emerged as a prominent detractor of Israeli policies, with a particular focus on the blockade imposed on Gaza and the treatment of Palestinians residing in the West Bank.
Geopolitical factors warrant careful consideration
Turkey\’s geopolitical interests in the Middle East exhibit a nuanced and intricate nature. While Mr Erdogan may indeed harbour ideological affinities towards the Palestinian cause, it is crucial to acknowledge that Turkey\’s engagement in this matter is also subject to the constraints imposed by its economic and security considerations. Turkey, as a member of the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO), maintains a robust partnership with the United States, a steadfast supporter of Israel. Turkey\’s international standing could be compromised if it were to engage in any form of retaliatory action against Israel.
The limitations within a country\’s borders
The domestic political landscape in which Erdogan operates serves as a constraining factor on his ability to take decisive actions vis-à-vis Israel. Turkey finds itself confronted with a multitude of economic challenges, notably the persistent issues of inflation and unemployment. A potential military altercation with Israel not only carries significant financial implications but also has the potential to exacerbate the already precarious state of the domestic political landscape.
Diplomatic channels
The established means of communication and negotiation between nations play a pivotal role in shaping international relations. Despite the prevailing rhetoric, Turkey and Israel have managed to sustain diplomatic channels. In the past few years, endeavours have been made to establish a sense of normalcy in relations, encompassing deliberations on reinstating comprehensive diplomatic ties and collaboration in domains such as energy and security. The diplomatic endeavours in question exemplify a pragmatic stance that mitigates fervent ideological inclinations.
In conclusion
Erdogan\’s ideological disposition and previous endeavours, such as the Gaza flotilla incident, indicate a propensity to engage with Israel in a confrontational manner. However, several factors constrain Turkey\’s potential intervention in the ongoing Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Turkey\’s decision-making process is influenced by a combination of geopolitical factors, domestic limitations, and continuous engagement in diplomatic discussions. These elements indicate that Turkey is inclined towards adopting a more nuanced strategy. While Erdogan\’s criticism of Israeli policies remains unabated, the intricate dynamics of global affairs and domestic political considerations indicate that Turkey\’s engagement will be characterised by prudence and deliberation.
However, in a situation extremely tense, we do not exclude, despite the previous consideration of constraints, a deflagration across the region that may involve Turkey, Egypt, and other actors as well.
