GEW Briefing
Note of the Editor:
This is a general analysis and forecast. For a more in-depth study, GEW will soon publish a comprehensive report titled Tunisia’s Best Economic Options For The Next 25 Years. The analysis aims to provide a compendious view of the economic choices and prospects for Tunisia. However, it is essential to note that economic forecasting involves uncertainties and risks, and therefore, the actual outcomes may vary.
Introduction
Tunisia, a North African country with a rich history and diverse culture, is confronted with many economic difficulties and opportunities as it navigates the complexity of the twenty-first century. The economy of the United States is at a crossroads, driven by political insecurity, social discontent, and external economic pressures. This article seeks to examine Tunisia\’s most significant economic options and prospects for the next twenty-five years, considering various aspects such as geopolitics, natural resources, human capital, and technology improvements.
Current Economic Situation
Tunisia\’s economy is currently focused primarily on agriculture, tourism, and the textile industry. However, political insecurity and the global economic crisis have had a significant influence on these sectors. Unemployment is high, especially among young people and women, and the country has a sizable informal sector.
The Tunisian labour market will face chronically high unemployment rates in the coming years, notably among young, university graduates and women [1]. There is a mismatch between the skills acquired by education and those required by the market, resulting in a dearth of decent formal positions as well as income and salary disparities [2]. Women in trailing regions and educated young women face the most difficult insertion obstacles in the labour market [3]. Furthermore, there are worries about skill mismatch and labour market impediments to competitiveness, which are impeding job creation and economic progress [4] [5]. To overcome these difficulties, policymakers must encourage competition, realign incentives and benefit packages, increase labour mobility, boost informal worker productivity, and restructure social insurance systems [6].
Economic Alternatives
Economic Diversification
1. Technology and Innovation: Investing in technology and innovation can help Tunisia become a global participant.
2. Renewable Energy: Tunisia has an abundance of solar and wind energy resources, making it a potential renewable energy hub.
3. Tourism: By focusing on eco-tourism and cultural tourism, the tourism sector might attract a new wave of tourists.
Increasing Human Capital
1. Education: Investing in education, particularly in STEM subjects, helps prepare young people for future careers.
2. Gender Equality: Promoting gender equality in the workplace can enhance economic output dramatically.
Geopolitical Alliances
1. Regional Cooperation: Strengthening ties with neighbouring countries might bring up new trade and investment opportunities.
2. Global Partnerships: Forming alliances with countries or blocks such as China, Russia, the GCC, the United States, and the European Union can bring in foreign investment and technological know-how.
Prospects for the Economy
Prospects for the Short Term (1-5 Years)
1. Economic Stability: With political stability in place, Tunisia can concentrate on economic reforms that will attract foreign investment.
2. Tourism Revival: Following the pandemic, the tourism industry is expected to recover and contribute significantly to GDP.
Prospects for the Long Term (5-25 Years)
1. Technological Hub: With the correct investments, Tunisia may become a North African technological hub.
2. Sustainable Development: By emphasising sustainable practises, Tunisia may become a pioneer in renewable energy and sustainable agriculture.
Risks and Difficulties
1. Political Instability: Prolonged political upheaval can discourage foreign investment.
2. Global Economic Conditions: External economic issues like global recessions can have an impact on the Tunisian economy.
Conclusion
Tunisia is at a crossroads where actions made today will have a huge impact on its future. Tunisia can pave the route for a prosperous and stable economy by focusing on economic diversification, human capital development, and smart geopolitical relationships.
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References
[1] Ragui, Assaad., Mongi, Boughzala. (2018). The Tunisian labor market in an era of transition. doi: 10.1093/OSO/9780198799863.001.0001
[2] Isabel, Schaefer. (2018). Labor Market Trends. doi: 10.1007/978-3-319-65085-2_4
[3] Karim, Chaabouni. (2022). Assessing Tunisian Exports towards the European Union: Intensity, Complementarity and Gravity Estimation. Asian Journal of Economic Modelling, doi: 10.55493/5009.v10i1.4476
[4] Diego, F., Angel-Urdinola., Antonio, Nucifora., David, A., Robalino. (2014). Labor policy to promote good jobs in Tunisia : revisiting labor regulation, social security, and active labor market programs. Research Papers in Economics, doi: 10.1596/978-1-4648-0271-3
[5] Hajer, Najeh, Zribi., Mahmoud, Zouaoui. (2013). The new challenges of innovation: The future of subcontracting facing the threat of the environment. International Journal of Management Excellence, doi: 10.17722/IJME.V2I1.32
[6] Assaad, Ragui, and Mongi Boughzala (2018). The Tunisian Labor Market in an Era of Transition. New York: Oxford University Press, USA.
Further Reading:
