GEW Assessment Report

 

If the West is happy with the genocide in Gaza allowing the Israeli rampage to continue, nobody else is happy with these despicable crimes Particularly Egypt. Popular and official Egypt.Let\’s say from the outset, no Middle Eastern state could upset the power balance in the region like  Egypt. Neither Iran, nor Turkey or the Gulf countries. We know Egypt weighs considerably in the regional power balance. Like it or not, Egypt has always been and will remain the only and ablest Arab Leader because of its political and military weight in any regional conflict or international conflict. No other country is more capable to stand to Israel than Egypt.

The real giant of the Middle East is Egypt and its invaluable army. The Israelis and their Western allies seem to take for granted that Egypt will watch the genocide without moving. Nothing could be more erratic and delusional.

Facts

1. Military Presence at Rafah Border Crossing:

• Egypt has stepped up its military presence at the Rafah border crossing with Gaza. This move comes after Israel instructed civilians living in the northern part of Gaza to evacuate to the south within 24 hours.[1]
• The situation is tense, and there are concerns that an all-out Israeli land assault on Gaza could lead to further casualties among Palestinians and potentially provoke intervention by other regional powers, including Egypt and Iran.

2. Warnings and Preparations:

• Egypt had warned Israel of a possible attack from Gaza three days before Hamas launched its deadly cross-border assault. Israel did not want to react because Netanyahu planned to destroy Gaza and/or impose the transfer of its population to Sinai. Egypt foiled the plan.
• More than 600,000 Gazans have moved to the southern part of the territory near the Egyptian border city of al-Arish in anticipation of an Israeli ground offensive. But Israel Occupation army did not hesitate to bombard them.
• International aid workers describe an unprecedented humanitarian collapse in Gaza.

October 1973 To October 2023

All the eyes are turned toward Iran, but Iran has never fought a war with Israel and won it. It is Egypt that did. October 1973! Surely, many people remember, and Iran was in another world at the time : the American world, precisely.

If the humanitarian situation in Gaza continues to deteriorate with the continuation of the genocide and the complicity  of the Western governments, this is what may happen:

Egypt will intervene militarily to stop the aggression and protect the civilians in Gaza, which the West do not want to protect.

Egypt\’s President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi has been clear in his stance against direct involvement in the post-war Gaza security situation. He rejected a proposal from the US to manage the security of the Gaza Strip after Hamas, stating that Egypt would not help Israel against Hamas as it needed the group to ensure border security between Egypt and the Gaza Strip[3].

Sisi has been actively involved in diplomatic efforts to de-escalate the conflict and facilitate the delivery of humanitarian assistance to Gaza. He has been in communication with President Biden, expressing his commitment to work together to set the conditions for a durable and sustainable peace in the Middle East, including the establishment of a Palestinian state[4][5].

However, Egypt\’s position in the region appears vulnerable as it shies away from involvement. There are concerns about the potential for widespread unrest within Egypt, and fears that protests for Palestinians could turn against the regime if Egypt does not move to stop the Israeli criminal rampage. The people in all the Arab countries have had enough of those crimes while their governments watch passively, waiting for Israel to eliminate over two million of Gaza\’s population in what seems to be the Holocaust of the 21st century.

Despite the tremendous challenges, Sisi has emphasised Egypt\’s role in trying to find a diplomatic solution to the conflict and has warned against any expansion of the conflict in Gaza, describing the region as a \”ticking time bomb\”[6][7].

Egypt has also been clear in its rejection of any forced displacement of Palestinians into Sinai. Sisi has stated that such a move would turn the peninsula into a base for attacks against Israel and that the Egyptian people would protest against any displacement of Gaza\’s residents to Sinai[8][9].

To summarise, while Egypt under the leadership of Abdel Fattah el-Sisi is actively involved in diplomatic efforts to de-escalate the conflict in Gaza and facilitate humanitarian aid, it has clearly stated its refusal to take on direct security responsibilities in post-war Gaza or accept any forced displacement of Palestinians into Sinai. Would it go until interference between Israel and the population of Gaza?

Surprises Happen in Wars

The current situation in Gaza is beyond human bearing. The Israeli Occupation Forces (IOF) have been conducting operations in Gaza with the stated goal of eliminating Hamas, but obviously, they cannot eradicate the Islamic resistance. Eliminating organisations of liberation driven by Islamic faith is a brand of the Impossible. Many Western powers have tried their hand at it and lamentably failed after being humiliated, including Great Britain, France, and the USA. Israel cannot perform better and will be defeated sooner or later. It\’s just a matter of time. There is nothing more powerful than \”Allah Akbar\” (God is the Greatest!) coming from the heart of a Muslim, even a child. Yet, instead of eradicating Hamas, the Israeli amateur soldiers are eliminating the civilian population. It\’s easier and dirtier. Recent reports indicate that the IOF has suffered heavy casualties. But it is just the beginning. More surprises are on the way.

The assertion that the Israeli army will never be able to control Gaza or eradicate Hamas is supported by several experts. The UN special rapporteur on the occupied Palestinian territories has expressed doubt about the possibility of eradicating Hamas, describing it as not just a military presence but a political reality[10]. Even the moribund Palestinian Authority premier has also stated that Israel cannot destroy Hamas as it is an idea and not just confined to Gaza[11].

Surprise attacks have historically been a potent change agent in warfare. They can alter the course of conflicts and have the potential to topple societies and shake civilisations. That happened on 6 June 1967, 6 October 1973, and 7 October 2023.

As for Egypt\’s potential involvement, recent reports indicate that Egypt has been facilitating the evacuation of foreign passport holders and Palestinians needing urgent medical treatment from Gaza. However, if there is no current indication that Egypt is planning to enter Gaza militarily, this does not mean it won\’t happen.

Will Egypt\’s Army Enter Gaza?

If Sisi\’s army were to enter Gaza, the implications would be drastic for Netanyahu, the least of which an Israeli revolt may expel him from government and finish his political career.

From a historical perspective, Egypt has had a complex relationship with Gaza and the broader Israel-Palestine conflict. Egypt occupied Gaza until the 1967 Six-Day War against Israel, and since then, it has maintained a cautious stance towards the region[12]. Egypt\’s relationship with Hamas, the governing authority in Gaza, has been marked by oscillations between hostility and accommodation[13].

Politically, Sisi\’s government has been under pressure to act due to the ongoing conflict in Gaza. However,  according to some observers, opening the door to Palestinians could risk facing opposition from Egyptians and potentially dissent within the army ranks[14]. The Egyptian public has expressed outrage over the Israeli bombardment of Gaza, and government-sanctioned protests have sometimes served as opportunities for dissent against the Egyptian government itself[15].

From a military perspective, Egypt has a significant military strength, ranking 14th out of 145 countries in the Global Firepower review[16]. If Sisi\’s army were to enter Gaza, it could potentially escalate the conflict and destabilise Israel.

Sisi could also use the situation to his advantage, such as securing debt relief or foreign aid in exchange for allowing foreign nationals to evacuate from Gaza or for opening humanitarian corridors into Gaza[17].

To summarise, unless the West moves fast to stop Israeli butchery in Gaza, the situation is going to look much uglier, and Israel will not get away with it. Gaza may become the graveyard of Israel.

---

1. Wintour, P., Michaelson, R., & McKernan, B. (2023, October 16). Blinken returning to Israel to try to limit death toll from an invasion of Gaza. The Guardian. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/oct/15/egypt-moves-troops-to-gaza-border-amid-fears-of-expulsion-of-palestinians

2. Sabbagh, D. (2023, October 13). Egypt warned Israel of Hamas attack days earlier, senior US politician says. The Guardian. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/oct/12/israel-hamas-war-egypt-warned-foreign-affairs-gaza

3. Staff, N. A. (n.d.). Egypt's Sisi refuses involvement in post-war Gaza security. The New Arab. https://www.newarab.com/news/egypts-sisi-refuses-involvement-post-war-gaza-security

4. House, W. (2023, October 29). Readout of President Biden’s Call with President Abdel Fattah Al-Sisi of Egypt. The White House. https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2023/10/29/readout-of-president-bidens-call-with-president-abdel-fattah-al-sisi-of-egypt/

5. House, W. (2023, October 17). Readout of President Joseph R. Biden, Jr. Call with President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi of Egypt. The White House. https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2023/10/16/readout-of-president-joseph-r-biden-jr-call-with-president-abdel-fattah-el-sisi-of-egypt/

6. Egypt’s Sisi says Cairo playing positive role in de-escalating Gaza crisis. (2023, October 25). Reuters. https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/egypts-sisi-says-cairo-playing-positive-role-de-escalating-gaza-crisis-2023-10-25/

7. Egypt’s Sisi warns region could become “ticking time bomb.” (2023, October 28). Reuters. https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/sisi-urges-all-respect-egypts-sovereignty-after-drone-incidents-2023-10-28/

8. Abdallah, N., Awadalla, N., & Wali, M. (2023, October 18). Egypt’s Sisi rejects transfer of Gazans, discusses aid with Biden. Reuters. https://www.reuters.com/world/egypt-rejects-any-displacement-palestinians-into-sinai-says-sisi-2023-10-18/

9. F. (2023, October 18). Egypt’s Sisi rejects Gaza refugee influx, blames Israel for aid block. France 24. https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20231018-egypt-s-sisi-rejects-gaza-refugee-influx-blames-israel-for-aid-block

10. Wintour, P. (2023, November 7). Israel’s attempt to destroy Hamas will breed more radicalisation, UN expert says. The Guardian. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/nov/07/israels-attempt-to-destroy-hamas-will-breed-more-radicalisation-un-expert-says

11. \”PA premier: Israel can’t destroy Hamas as it’s an idea, and not just in Gaza\”, The Times of Israel, 9 November 2023. https://www.timesofisrael.com/pa-premier-israel-cant-destroy-hamas-as-its-an-idea-and-not-just-in-gaza/

12. Cook, S. A. (2023, October 16). Will Egypt Play a Role in Easing the Gaza War? Retrieved from https://www.cfr.org/in-brief/will-egypt-play-role-easing-gaza-war

13. Mandour, M. (n.d.). Why Israel's war on Hamas spells trouble for Egypt's Sisi. Retrieved from https://www.newarab.com/analysis/why-israels-war-hamas-spells-trouble-egypts-sisi

14. Dagres, H. (2023, November 3). As the Gaza war continues, Egypt is facing pressure to act. Retrieved from https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/menasource/gaza-israel-sisi-egypt-rafah-border/

15. Anderson, L. (2023, October 30). Egypt in the Cauldron of Gaza: Israel’s Offensive Will Pit Sisi Against His Own People. Retrieved from https://www.foreignaffairs.com/middle-east/egypt-cauldron-gaza

16. 2023 Egypt Military Strength. (n.d.). Retrieved from https://www.globalfirepower.com/country-military-strength-detail.php?country_id=egypt

17. Dagres, H. (2023, November 3). As the Gaza war continues, Egypt is facing pressure to act. Retrieved from https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/menasource/gaza-israel-sisi-egypt-rafah-border/